SpaceX Stock Drops 10% as Analysts Refuse Price Target
June 22, 2025 — SpaceX shares plunged more than 10% in early U.S. trading after KeyBanc initiated coverage with a neutral rating and declined to assign a price target, intensifying valuation concerns following the company’s record-breaking public debut. The decline came as analysts at KeyBanc cited balanced risk-reward despite strong growth prospects from Starlink and AI-related opportunities.
Immediate Details & Direct Quotes
Low fees are crucial when trading breaking news. We recommend MEXC for tight spreads and fast execution.
KeyBanc began coverage of SpaceX with a “Sector Weight” rating while declining to provide a target price for the stock, according to a June 22 Barron’s report. The brokerage firm acknowledged SpaceX’s dominant position in the space launch industry but argued that much of the company’s future growth may already be priced into current valuation levels.
“SpaceX possesses significant disruptive growth avenues, though we believe this is reflected in current valuation and risk/reward appears balanced, in our view,” KeyBanc analysts wrote in their coverage note.
SPCX shares traded around $165.63 at the time of writing, extending losses after one of the most successful public offerings in market history. The pullback has drawn attention because it follows a sharp post-listing surge that pushed SpaceX’s valuation to levels some analysts consider difficult to justify.
Similar concerns have emerged elsewhere. Analysts at Morningstar estimated a fair value of $63 per share, arguing that SpaceX stock may be trading above levels supported by fundamentals, as previously reported by crypto.news.
Market Context & Reaction
Investor attention has shifted from the scale of the listing toward whether SpaceX can deliver enough growth to support its market capitalization. The valuation debate comes only weeks after the company’s blockbuster public debut generated enormous wealth for shareholders, pushing Elon Musk’s net worth above $1 trillion while creating new billionaires among early investors, executives and institutional backers.
In its coverage note, KeyBanc identified Starlink as one of SpaceX’s most important revenue engines and said advances in artificial intelligence could support future expansion. Despite these growth catalysts, the firm maintained a cautious position, citing what it described as a balanced risk-reward profile at current prices.
As of June 22, traders are assessing whether the stock’s latest decline represents a temporary reset after an extraordinary rally or the beginning of a longer adjustment period.
Background & Historical Context
SpaceX entered the debt market for the first time alongside the analyst coverage. The company is issuing senior unsecured notes as part of its first bond offering, Barron’s also reported. SpaceX currently holds approximately $100.8 billion in cash and intends to use proceeds from the sale primarily to repay bridge financing, with additional funds allocated for general corporate purposes.
The debt offering arrives shortly after the company’s June 12 IPO, which reportedly raised over $85 billion after underwriters exercised the greenshoe option. Recent reports have also suggested SpaceX could pursue significantly larger fundraising plans, with some indications of a potential bond raise worth as much as $20 billion, highlighting continued demand from investors seeking exposure to Elon Musk’s space and artificial intelligence businesses.
What This Means
The absence of a price target from KeyBanc signals that even analysts confident in SpaceX’s long-term prospects see limited upside at current levels. Short-term traders should expect continued volatility as the market digests the post-IPO valuation gap between institutional estimates and trading prices.
For long-term investors, the key question remains whether Starlink’s revenue trajectory and AI-related opportunities can close the gap between current share prices and fundamental valuations. SpaceX’s entry into the bond market provides additional capital flexibility but also adds leverage to its balance sheet.
Upcoming milestones include Starlink’s global expansion targets and potential government contracts that could provide catalysts for renewed upside. However, with analysts split between long-term confidence and near-term valuation concerns, readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions. This is not financial advice.