Bitcoin’s MACD Flips Bullish, Signaling Potential Rally Above $70,000
Jul 10, 2026 — Bitcoin’s long-term momentum gauge has turned bullish for the first time since October, suggesting the cryptocurrency’s recent bounce above $64,000 could extend further toward key resistance levels between $65,000 and $80,000.
Immediate Details & Direct Quotes
Low fees are crucial when trading breaking news. We recommend MEXC for tight spreads and fast execution.
Bitcoin’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram—a popular technical indicator that tracks trend direction and strength—has crossed above zero on longer-term settings, according to a report from CoinDesk. The MACD oscillates around a zero line, with crossovers above it signaling bullish momentum shifts and crossovers below indicating bearish turns.
The standard MACD uses 12-day and 26-day averages with a 9-day signal line, but these default settings can produce short-term noise. Traders often switch to longer parameters—such as 50-day, 100-day, and 9-day settings—to filter out fluctuations. This smoother version has now crossed above zero, flashing a bullish shift in momentum.
“This particular MACD has proved reliable as a standalone gauge through the price crash from the record high of $126,000,” the report notes. Since October, negative crossovers have consistently marked the start of steeper declines, while positive crossovers have preceded meaningful recovery rallies, including the December–January bounce and the February–May bounce.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading just above $64,000, up nearly 10% for the month.
Market Context & Reaction
The bullish MACD crossover shifts focus to three key resistance levels that will determine whether the current bounce becomes a full-blown uptrend. The first level to watch is the 50-day simple moving average, currently around $65,434. A clear move above this line—which represents the average Bitcoin price over the past two months—is often seen as a sign that upside momentum is building.
The second key level is $67,292, which was the mid-June high. This area saw Bitcoin stage a brief recovery from early June lows near $60,000, only for sellers to step in aggressively and turn the price lower again. Breaking above $67,292 would show buyers have overcome that previous area of strong selling pressure.
The third and most significant level is the 200-day moving average, currently near $71,147. This long-term trend indicator acted as major resistance in early May, when it stopped the bounce that had started from February lows near $60,000. Clearing this level convincingly would provide strong evidence that a full bullish trend is developing.
Background & Historical Context
Traders typically do not rely on a single indicator for market trends, but this particular MACD configuration has proven reliable through Bitcoin’s crash from its record high of $126,000. The indicator has correctly marked the start of steep declines with negative crossovers since October, while positive crossovers have preceded meaningful recovery rallies.
The latest bullish crossover points to a notable bounce ahead, though not necessarily the start of a full-blown new uptrend. That bigger move would require additional confirmation, which is why the resistance levels above are now in focus.
A final note on potential volatility comes from the $80,000 level in Deribit’s options market. The notional open interest at $80,000 exceeds $1.21 billion—the highest of any strike on the exchange. As Bitcoin prices approach this area, activity from traders holding these contracts could spill over into spot and futures markets, adding to price swings.
What This Means
Short-term bulls should watch for Bitcoin to clear the 50-day moving average near $65,434 first, followed by the mid-June high at $67,292. A break above these levels would signal strengthening upside momentum.
Long-term confirmation requires a move above the 200-day moving average near $71,147. This level represents the most significant technical barrier and would indicate a potential trend reversal from the months-long downtrend.
Traders should also monitor the $80,000 options strike, where concentrated open interest could amplify volatility if Bitcoin approaches that price zone.
Until Bitcoin pushes through these resistance zones, bulls should remain cautiously optimistic. The bullish MACD crossover is encouraging, but a full uptrend needs more confirmation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.