Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Gives Way to 10-Year Grind

Is the era of Bitcoin’s dramatic boom-and-bust cycles coming to an end? According to a leading industry figure, the market is undergoing a fundamental shift. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at asset manager Bitwise, argues that the famous four-year cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin’s “halving” events, is being overshadowed by a new, longer-term trend. He suggests we are entering a “10-year grind” characterized by steadier returns and lower volatility. This change is driven by powerful new forces reshaping the cryptocurrency landscape.

Read time: 8–10 minutes

Understanding Bitcoin’s Market Cycles for Beginners

A market cycle describes the recurring pattern of price movements in an asset, typically moving through phases of boom, peak, decline, and recovery. In Bitcoin’s history, a roughly four-year cycle has been prominent, often linked to its programmed “halving” event, which reduces the rate of new coin creation and has historically preceded major price rallies.

Think of it like a seasonal business. A retail store might have predictable, explosive sales during the holiday season (the “boom”), followed by a quieter period. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been similar, with periods of intense growth followed by significant corrections. For new investors, understanding these patterns helps explain past price action and manage expectations about potential future volatility.

The Technical Details: How It Actually Works

• The Halving Mechanism: Approximately every four years, the reward that Bitcoin miners receive for validating transactions is cut in half. This is a core, predictable part of Bitcoin’s code designed to control inflation.
• Supply Shock Narrative: The halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market. The theory is that if demand remains steady or increases while new supply slows, the price should rise over time.
• Market Psychology: The halving has become a major event on the crypto calendar. Anticipation often builds in the months leading up to it, influencing trader behavior and creating a self-fulfilling cycle of hype and investment.
• Post-Halving Dynamics: Historically, significant price appreciation has occurred in the 12-18 months following a halving, though past performance never guarantees future results.

Why this matters: For users, the halving cycle was a key narrative for timing investments. However, as the market matures, other factors like large-scale institutional buying and regulatory changes are becoming equally, if not more, important for price discovery.

Current Market Context: Why This Matters Now

As of late 2025, the conversation around Bitcoin is evolving. According to Hougan’s analysis, the market is showing clear signs of structural change. A key piece of evidence is Bitcoin’s volatility, which has reportedly dropped below that of major tech stocks like NVIDIA over the past year. This is a significant shift from Bitcoin’s early days of wild price swings.

The driving force behind this stabilization, Hougan suggests, is the growing presence of institutional investors—like university endowments and pension funds. Unlike some retail traders who may buy on hype and sell on fear, large institutions often use disciplined, long-term strategies. They might automatically rebalance their portfolios, buying more of an asset when its price dips relative to their target allocation. This creates a “floor” of consistent demand that can dampen severe downturns.

Hougan describes the new price pattern as a “staircase up and then an elevator down.” Prices grind higher over time (the staircase) but corrections, when they happen, can be sharp (the elevator down). However, he argues that institutional buying is why a recent pullback was around 30% instead of a more severe 60% drop seen in previous cycles. Regulatory progress, such as clearer legislation, is also cited as a critical one-time boost that has removed a major barrier for cautious institutional capital.

Competitive Landscape

The shift from a retail-driven, cycle-focused market to an institutionally-driven, long-term one changes the competitive landscape for services. Here’s how different types of platforms are positioned:

Practical Applications

• Adjusting Investment Mindset: Shift from trying to “time the halving” to building a long-term, diversified portfolio strategy. This involves thinking in terms of years, not months.
• Emphasizing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): A steady, disciplined approach of investing a fixed amount regularly is well-suited for a market characterized by “grinding” upward movement with less predictable short-term spikes.
• Prioritizing Security & Custody: For long-term holdings, using secure storage methods like hardware wallets or reputable custodial services becomes paramount, as assets will be held for extended periods.
• Integrating Tax Planning: With the expectation of steady returns, proactively using tax software and understanding capital gains implications for your jurisdiction is a critical financial practice.
• Exploring Staking & Yield: In a lower-volatility environment, earning yield through staking (on proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum) or other decentralized finance (DeFi) activities can supplement potential price gains.
• Monitoring Macro & Regulatory News: Since institutional flows are sensitive to broader economic policy and regulation, staying informed on these fronts becomes more important than following halving countdowns.

Risk Analysis (Expert Perspective)

While a “10-year grind” suggests stability, significant risks remain:

• Regulatory Risk: Despite progress, the global regulatory environment is still fragmented. Sudden, restrictive policies in major economies could disrupt institutional participation and market sentiment.
• Macroeconomic Risk: Cryptocurrencies are not immune to broader financial markets. High interest rates, recessions, or liquidity crunches can lead to correlated sell-offs, even with institutional buyers.
• Technological & Security Risk: The underlying protocols, smart contracts, and custodial solutions are complex. Bugs, hacks, or unforeseen technical limitations could undermine confidence.
• Market Structure Risk: Increased institutional ownership could lead to new forms of volatility or market manipulation, and the failure of a major crypto-native institution could have cascading effects.

Mitigation Ideas: Diversify across asset types (not just crypto), use only reputable, regulated platforms for core holdings, maintain a long-term perspective to avoid panic selling, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

This analysis is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR).

Beginner’s Corner: Quick Start Guide for Long-Term Crypto Investing

• Educate Yourself First: Before buying anything, spend time understanding blockchain basics, different types of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin vs. Ethereum vs. tokens), and wallet security. Knowledge is your best risk management tool.
• Choose a Reputable Exchange: Start with a well-known, regulated platform in your region to make your first purchase. Look for strong security features and good customer support.
• Set Up a Secure Wallet: For long-term holdings, transfer your crypto off the exchange to a self-custody hardware wallet. This gives you full control and eliminates exchange hack risk.
• Start with Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Instead of investing a lump sum, set up automatic, recurring purchases of a set dollar amount. This averages your purchase price over time and removes emotion.
• Define Your Goals & Timeframe: Are you saving for a goal 10+ years away? Write down your plan and stick to it, ignoring short-term market noise and hype.
• Secure Your Backups: Write down your wallet’s recovery seed phrase on paper and store it in multiple secure physical locations. Never store it digitally.
• Ignore the Noise: Mute social media hype channels. Follow a few credible educational sources instead. Long-term investing is often boring—that’s okay.

Common mistakes to avoid: Investing based on fear of missing out (FOMO), putting all your money into one speculative asset, sharing private keys or seed phrases with anyone, and constantly checking prices daily.

Future Outlook

The thesis of a maturing Bitcoin market points toward several expected developments. Continued growth in regulated financial products, like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in various countries, is likely. This will further bridge traditional and crypto finance. Increased integration of blockchain technology for real-world assets (tokenization) and payments (via stablecoins) is also planned by major financial institutions.

However, uncertainty remains. The pace of regulatory clarity will vary globally, potentially creating uneven adoption. Technological innovation, such as scaling solutions and new consensus mechanisms, could shift competitive dynamics between assets. Ultimately, while the extreme volatility of Bitcoin’s first decade may moderate, the market will still experience cycles—they may just be longer, shallower, and driven by different fundamentals like institutional capital flows and global macroeconomics.

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin market is maturing, with institutional investors creating more stable, long-term demand that may lessen the dominance of the classic four-year “halving” cycle.
• Lower volatility and a “grinding” upward price trend could become the new norm, favoring disciplined strategies like dollar-cost averaging over short-term speculation.
• Regulatory progress has been a key catalyst for institutional entry, but ongoing clarity is needed for this trend to continue.
• Investors should prepare for a long-term horizon, prioritizing security, tax planning, and education over reactionary trading.
• While risks remain, the evolving market structure suggests crypto is becoming a more integrated, albeit still volatile, part of the global financial system.