Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Gives Way to 10-Year Grind
Is the era of Bitcoin’s dramatic boom-and-bust cycles coming to an end? According to a leading industry figure, the market is undergoing a fundamental shift. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at asset manager Bitwise, argues that the famous four-year cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin’s “halving” events, is being overshadowed by a new, longer-term trend. He suggests we are entering a “10-year grind” characterized by steadier returns and lower volatility. This change is driven by powerful new forces reshaping the cryptocurrency landscape.
Read time: 8–10 minutes
Understanding Bitcoin’s Market Cycles for Beginners
A market cycle describes the recurring pattern of price movements in an asset, typically moving through phases of boom, peak, decline, and recovery. In Bitcoin’s history, a roughly four-year cycle has been prominent, often linked to its programmed “halving” event, which reduces the rate of new coin creation and has historically preceded major price rallies.
Think of it like a seasonal business. A retail store might have predictable, explosive sales during the holiday season (the “boom”), followed by a quieter period. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been similar, with periods of intense growth followed by significant corrections. For new investors, understanding these patterns helps explain past price action and manage expectations about potential future volatility.
The Technical Details: How It Actually Works
- The Halving Mechanism: Approximately every four years, the reward that Bitcoin miners receive for validating transactions is cut in half. This is a core, predictable part of Bitcoin’s code designed to control inflation.
- Supply Shock Narrative: The halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market. The theory is that if demand remains steady or increases while new supply slows, the price should rise over time.
- Market Psychology: The halving has become a major event on the crypto calendar. Anticipation often builds in the months leading up to it, influencing trader behavior and creating a self-fulfilling cycle of hype and investment.
- Post-Halving Dynamics: Historically, significant price appreciation has occurred in the 12-18 months following a halving, though past performance never guarantees future results.
Why this matters: For users, the halving cycle was a key narrative for timing investments. However, as the market matures, other factors like large-scale institutional buying and regulatory changes are becoming equally, if not more, important for price discovery.
Current Market Context: Why This Matters Now
As of late 2025, the conversation around Bitcoin is evolving. According to Hougan’s analysis, the market is showing clear signs of structural change. A key piece of evidence is Bitcoin’s volatility, which has reportedly dropped below that of major tech stocks like NVIDIA over the past year. This is a significant shift from Bitcoin’s early days of wild price swings.
The driving force behind this stabilization, Hougan suggests, is the growing presence of institutional investors—like university endowments and pension funds. Unlike some retail traders who may buy on hype and sell on fear, large institutions often use disciplined, long-term strategies. They might automatically rebalance their portfolios, buying more of an asset when its price dips relative to their target allocation. This creates a “floor” of consistent demand that can dampen severe downturns.
Hougan describes the new price pattern as a “staircase up and then an elevator down.” Prices grind higher over time (the staircase) but corrections, when they happen, can be sharp (the elevator down). However, he argues that institutional buying is why a recent pullback was around 30% instead of a more severe 60% drop seen in previous cycles. Regulatory progress, such as clearer legislation, is also cited as a critical one-time boost that has removed a major barrier for cautious institutional capital.
Competitive Landscape
The shift from a retail-driven, cycle-focused market to an institutionally-driven, long-term one changes the competitive landscape for services. Here’s how different types of platforms are positioned:
| Service Type | Example (from input) | Role in a “10-Year Grind” Market |
|---|---|---|
| Tax & Reporting | Blockpit | Becomes essential for long-term holders and institutions needing compliant, automated tax reporting for steady gains over years. |
| Staking & Yield | Ethereum Staking | Gains importance as investors seek to generate returns (“yield”) on crypto assets during slower-growth phases, not just price appreciation. |
| Institutional Custody & Asset Management | Bitwise (via ETFs) | Central players, providing the regulated, secure vehicles (like spot Bitcoin ETFs) through which institutions gain exposure. |
Practical Applications
- Adjusting Investment Mindset: Shift from trying to “time the halving” to building a long-term, diversified portfolio strategy. This involves thinking in terms of years, not months.
- Emphasizing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): A steady, disciplined approach of investing a fixed amount regularly is well-suited for a market characterized by “grinding” upward movement with less predictable short-term spikes.
- Prioritizing Security & Custody: For long-term holdings, using secure storage methods like hardware wallets or reputable custodial services becomes paramount, as assets will be held for extended periods.
- Integrating Tax Planning: With the expectation of steady returns, proactively using tax software and understanding capital gains implications for your jurisdiction is a critical financial practice.
- Exploring Staking & Yield: In a lower-volatility environment, earning yield through staking (on proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum) or other decentralized finance (DeFi) activities can supplement potential price gains.
- Monitoring Macro & Regulatory News: Since institutional flows are sensitive to broader economic policy and regulation, staying informed on these fronts becomes more important than following halving countdowns.
Risk Analysis (Expert Perspective)
While a “10-year grind” suggests stability, significant risks remain:
- Regulatory Risk: Despite progress, the global regulatory environment is still fragmented. Sudden, restrictive policies in major economies could disrupt institutional participation and market sentiment.
- Macroeconomic Risk: Cryptocurrencies are not immune to broader financial markets. High interest rates, recessions, or liquidity crunches can lead to correlated sell-offs, even with institutional buyers.
- Technological & Security Risk: The underlying protocols, smart contracts, and custodial solutions are complex. Bugs, hacks, or unforeseen technical limitations could undermine confidence.
- Market Structure Risk: Increased institutional ownership could lead to new forms of volatility or market manipulation, and the failure of a major crypto-native institution could have cascading effects.
Mitigation Ideas: Diversify across asset types (not just crypto), use only reputable, regulated platforms for core holdings, maintain a long-term perspective to avoid panic selling, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
This analysis is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR).
Beginner’s Corner: Quick Start Guide for Long-Term Crypto Investing
- Educate Yourself First: Before buying anything, spend time understanding blockchain basics, different types of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin vs. Ethereum vs. tokens), and wallet security. Knowledge is your best risk management tool.
- Choose a Reputable Exchange: Start with a well-known, regulated platform in your region to make your first purchase. Look for strong security features and good customer support.
- Set Up a Secure Wallet: For long-term holdings, transfer your crypto off the exchange to a self-custody hardware wallet. This gives you full control and eliminates exchange hack risk.
- Start with Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Instead of investing a lump sum, set up automatic, recurring purchases of a set dollar amount. This averages your purchase price over time and removes emotion.
- Define Your Goals & Timeframe: Are you saving for a goal 10+ years away? Write down your plan and stick to it, ignoring short-term market noise and hype.
- Secure Your Backups: Write down your wallet’s recovery seed phrase on paper and store it in multiple secure physical locations. Never store it digitally.
- Ignore the Noise: Mute social media hype channels. Follow a few credible educational sources instead. Long-term investing is often boring—that’s okay.
Common mistakes to avoid: Investing based on fear of missing out (FOMO), putting all your money into one speculative asset, sharing private keys or seed phrases with anyone, and constantly checking prices daily.
Future Outlook
The thesis of a maturing Bitcoin market points toward several expected developments. Continued growth in regulated financial products, like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in various countries, is likely. This will further bridge traditional and crypto finance. Increased integration of blockchain technology for real-world assets (tokenization) and payments (via stablecoins) is also planned by major financial institutions.
However, uncertainty remains. The pace of regulatory clarity will vary globally, potentially creating uneven adoption. Technological innovation, such as scaling solutions and new consensus mechanisms, could shift competitive dynamics between assets. Ultimately, while the extreme volatility of Bitcoin’s first decade may moderate, the market will still experience cycles—they may just be longer, shallower, and driven by different fundamentals like institutional capital flows and global macroeconomics.
Key Takeaways
- The Bitcoin market is maturing, with institutional investors creating more stable, long-term demand that may lessen the dominance of the classic four-year “halving” cycle.
- Lower volatility and a “grinding” upward price trend could become the new norm, favoring disciplined strategies like dollar-cost averaging over short-term speculation.
- Regulatory progress has been a key catalyst for institutional entry, but ongoing clarity is needed for this trend to continue.
- Investors should prepare for a long-term horizon, prioritizing security, tax planning, and education over reactionary trading.
- While risks remain, the evolving market structure suggests crypto is becoming a more integrated, albeit still volatile, part of the global financial system.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Sees Last Adjustment Increase in 2025
Have you ever wondered how Bitcoin maintains its steady 10-minute block time, even as more powerful computers join the network? The answer lies in a core protocol feature called mining difficulty. As of late 2025, this difficulty has once again increased, marking the final adjustment of the year. This change is a direct response to the network’s health and has important implications for miners and the security of the entire system.
Read time: 8–10 minutes
Understanding Bitcoin Mining Difficulty for Beginners
Bitcoin mining difficulty is a self-adjusting number that controls how hard it is for computers (miners) to find the solution to a complex math problem and add a new block of transactions to the blockchain. It ensures that new blocks are created roughly every 10 minutes, regardless of how much total computing power is on the network. This mechanism is fundamental to Bitcoin’s predictable supply schedule and security.
Think of it like a puzzle that automatically gets harder or easier. If too many people are solving the puzzle too quickly, the puzzle pieces get smaller, making it more challenging. If people are solving it too slowly, the pieces get bigger. This keeps the pace steady.
For someone learning about crypto, understanding difficulty is key to grasping how Bitcoin remains decentralized and secure without a central authority controlling its issuance. It’s the protocol’s built-in thermostat.
The Technical Details: How It Actually Works
- The Target: The Bitcoin protocol aims for a new block every 10 minutes. This is the network’s heartbeat.
- Measuring Pace: Every 2,016 blocks (about two weeks), the network calculates the average time it took to mine those blocks.
- The Adjustment: If blocks were found faster than 10 minutes on average, the difficulty increases. If they were found slower, it decreases.
- The “Hash”: Miners compete by making quintillions of guesses per second (called hashes) to find a valid solution. Difficulty sets how rare a winning guess must be.
Why this matters for users: This automated adjustment protects you. It prevents any single miner or group from flooding the network with blocks, controlling transactions, or printing new Bitcoin too fast, which would destroy its value.
Current Market Context: Why This Matters Now
The data shows Bitcoin’s mining difficulty increased slightly in its last scheduled adjustment for 2025, reaching approximately 148.2 trillion. Furthermore, projections based on current block times indicate another increase is expected in early January 2026.
This trend is a sign of a healthy and competitive network. The slight increase suggests that, on average, blocks were being found a bit faster than the 10-minute target prior to the adjustment. The network’s response is to make the puzzle slightly harder to bring the timing back in line.
For miners, this means the business becomes more competitive. They must expend more energy and computing power to earn the same block rewards. This economic pressure is a designed feature that ensures only the most efficient operations survive, contributing to network security.
Competitive Landscape
While “mining difficulty” itself isn’t a company, it creates a competitive environment for the entities that provide the computing power (hashrate). We can look at the different types of participants in this landscape.
| Participant Type | Role & Characteristics | Impact of Rising Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Large Public Miners (e.g., Marathon, Riot) | Industrial-scale operations with access to capital markets and cheap energy contracts. | Better positioned to weather higher costs; can invest in next-generation hardware. |
| Private Mining Pools | Groups where individual miners combine their hashrate to earn more consistent rewards. | Essential for small miners to remain viable; pool fees cut into profits. |
| Individual/Small-Scale Miners | Operators with a few mining rigs, often at home. | Faces the greatest squeeze; profitability highly sensitive to electricity cost and hardware efficiency. |
Practical Applications
- Network Security Gauge: A consistently high or rising difficulty indicates strong miner commitment, which makes attacking the network prohibitively expensive.
- Miner Profitability Calculator: Miners use the current difficulty, their hashrate, and energy costs to model potential earnings before investing in equipment.
- Long-Term Investment Signal: For investors, sustained high difficulty can signal underlying network strength and miner confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.
- Understanding Bitcoin’s Supply Schedule: Difficulty adjustments are the engine that ensures new Bitcoin enters circulation at a predictable rate, crucial for its monetary policy.
- Energy Market Analysis: Trends in mining difficulty and geographic hashrate distribution can provide insights into global energy consumption and sourcing.
Risk Analysis (Expert Perspective)
Technical & Market Risks: A sharp, sustained drop in Bitcoin’s price combined with high difficulty can trigger a “miner capitulation,” where inefficient miners shut down. This could temporarily centralize hashrate among survivors and increase network vulnerability until difficulty adjusts downward.
Regulatory Risk: Government crackdowns on energy use for mining in major regions can cause sudden, large shifts in global hashrate, leading to volatile difficulty adjustments and potential short-term network instability.
Security Risk: The primary security model relies on no single entity controlling over 51% of the hashrate. While rising difficulty makes this attack more expensive, consolidation among miners remains a theoretical long-term concern.
Mitigation: The protocol’s two-week adjustment period allows time for the network to re-stabilize after shocks. Diversification of mining across jurisdictions and continued development of more energy-efficient hardware also help mitigate these risks.
This analysis is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR).
Beginner’s Corner: Quick Start Guide
- Learn First, Mine Later: Before spending money, use online mining calculators to simulate profits with current difficulty and your local electricity costs.
- Choose Your Path: Decide between solo mining (very unlikely rewards) or joining a reputable mining pool for smaller, more frequent payouts.
- Select Efficient Hardware: Research ASIC miners based on their “hashrate per watt” efficiency, not just raw power.
- Secure Your Wallet: Set up a secure, self-custody Bitcoin wallet (like a hardware wallet) to receive your mining rewards. Never use an exchange address as your primary payout.
- Start Small: Consider cloud mining contracts or a single small rig to understand the process before significant investment.
Common mistakes to avoid: Ignoring electricity costs, buying outdated hardware, failing to account for network difficulty increases in profit calculations, and not securing mined coins properly.
Future Outlook
The next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is projected to occur around January 8, 2026. Based on current block times, it is expected to result in another increase. This is a routine function of the protocol responding to network hashrate.
Looking further ahead, the next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for 2028. This event, which cuts the block reward in half, will place enormous economic pressure on miners. The interplay between rising difficulty, hardware efficiency gains, and the halving’s reward reduction will define the mining industry’s evolution. Innovations in areas like energy sourcing and heat reuse are expected to become even more critical for survival.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin mining difficulty is a self-correcting mechanism that keeps block production near 10 minutes, ensuring a steady and secure network.
- The final 2025 adjustment saw a slight increase, with another rise projected for early 2026, reflecting continued strong participation from miners.
- Rising difficulty increases operational pressure on miners, weeding out inefficiency and strengthening the network’s economic security.
- For investors and users, a high and stable difficulty is a positive indicator of the network’s robust health and decentralization.
- Understanding difficulty is essential to grasp Bitcoin’s predictable monetary policy and its defense against manipulation.