Stripe and Advent Offer $53 Billion for PayPal: What This Means for Crypto

Jul 15, 2026 — Payment processor Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have submitted a $53 billion bid to acquire PayPal, offering $60.50 per share — a 28% premium above Tuesday’s closing price. The proposal would unite two of fintech’s most aggressive stablecoin players under one roof, combining PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin with Stripe’s blockchain infrastructure. The deal is backed by approximately $50 billion in committed bank financing, with both suitors holding equal stakes and no plans to break up the company.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The formal proposal follows an initial approach made in April, with the formal bid submitted earlier in July, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters. The $60.50 per share offer values the fintech giant at more than $53 billion — a fraction of its pandemic-era peak of $350 billion.

Sources stressed that Stripe and Advent would not break up PayPal, despite speculation about potential asset sales. Bloomberg first reported the bid details, confirming the $50 billion in committed bank financing backing the acquisition attempt.

PayPal’s board has not yet accepted the offer, and both Reuters and Bloomberg cautioned that there is no guarantee the talks will lead to a transaction. The board must now weigh a rich cash premium against surrendering the company’s independence at a fraction of its former market value.

Market Context & Reaction

As of July 15, 2026, the premium offered reflects how far PayPal has fallen from its pandemic-era peak, when the company commanded a market value above $350 billion. At $53 billion, the bid values PayPal at roughly one-seventh of that high, even after the stock’s recent recovery.

For the crypto payments sector, the combination is difficult to overstate. Stripe has spent two years assembling a holistic payments-crypto infrastructure, first acquiring Bridge — a stablecoin orchestration platform — in a record $1.1 billion deal, and subsequently unveiling Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain built with Paradigm promising sub-second finality.

Stripe is also a backer of Open USD, the fee-free stablecoin launched by 140 firms including Coinbase and Ripple, and plans to make it the default stablecoin across its platform. Folding PayPal’s crypto assets into Stripe’s architecture would create a single company touching nearly every layer of dollar-token payments.

Background & Historical Context

Antitrust reviewers could scrutinize a merger of two of the largest online payment processors in the West, presenting a significant regulatory hurdle. The bid follows PayPal’s aggressive push into crypto, including the launch of PYUSD — one of the few stablecoins issued by a household-name fintech company.

PayPal currently offers crypto buying, selling, and checkout services to hundreds of millions of accounts. The company recently expanded PYUSD to nearly 70 countries in a single sweep, positioning the stablecoin as a global payments contender.

Stripe, for its part, has built its crypto infrastructure from the ground up over the past two years, acquiring key technology and talent to create an end-to-end stablecoin payment system. The company’s Tempo blockchain and Bridge platform represent a significant investment in crypto-native payment rails.

What This Means

The acquisition bid signals that stablecoin-era payments infrastructure has become the prize Wall Street’s biggest checkbooks are chasing. If completed, the deal would rank among the largest fintech acquisitions in history.

In the short term, PayPal’s board must issue a formal response to the offer. Traders and investors should watch for regulatory developments, as antitrust review could delay or block the transaction.

For crypto users, a combined Stripe-PayPal entity would control stablecoin issuance, orchestration, settlement rails, and consumer checkout — potentially reshaping how dollar-token payments flow across the global financial system. However, significant hurdles remain before any deal can close.

Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

JPMorgan Warns Hyperliquid Deal Could Squeeze Circle, Coinbase

July 14, 2026 — JPMorgan has lowered earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase following a new USDC revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid, warning the deal could pressure stablecoin profit margins. The revised terms mean Coinbase will return 90% of USDC reserve yields earned on Hyperliquid’s platform, reducing long-term profitability for both companies even as adoption grows.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

According to a JPMorgan research note, the revised agreement shifts how income from USDC’s reserve yields is divided among distribution partners. Under the new arrangement, Coinbase will classify USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform” balances, allowing the exchange to receive reserve income from those deposits but requiring it to return 90% of that revenue to Hyperliquid rather than splitting proceeds with Circle.

JPMorgan estimates Hyperliquid currently holds approximately $6 billion worth of USDC, representing roughly 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply. The bank described a competitive dynamic where both companies face pressure to increase USDC usage even if it means surrendering a larger portion of reserve revenue to distribution partners.

“The bank argued that competition among distribution partners may force issuers to give away a larger share of reserve income to secure market share,” the research note stated.

Market Context & Reaction

The revenue-sharing concerns follow a May 14 announcement when Circle and Coinbase revealed their partnership with Hyperliquid to deepen USDC integration across the crypto trading platform. Since June 11, USDC has become Hyperliquid’s preferred stablecoin, strengthening the platform’s importance within Circle’s distribution network.

JPMorgan said the commercial terms supporting that expansion, rather than growth in usage itself, have become the main issue for investors evaluating future earnings. The bank characterized the situation as one where efforts to expand adoption could come at the cost of lower profitability.

Wall Street analysts remain divided on Circle’s outlook. Mizuho has taken a cautious stance, downgrading the stock as concerns grow over whether expanding USDC adoption will continue generating attractive economics. By contrast, Bernstein and William Blair have maintained positive ratings, expecting continued growth in digital dollar usage despite increasing competition.

Background & Historical Context

Hyperliquid operates both a Layer-1 blockchain and a decentralized exchange offering spot and perpetual futures markets. The platform’s growing role in the USDC ecosystem has made it a critical distribution partner for Circle and Coinbase.

Even after cutting its earnings estimates, JPMorgan continues to forecast growth in USDC-related earnings through 2027. The bank attributed this expectation to its interest-rate outlook, which now includes a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 2026 meeting. Higher rates generally increase income earned on the cash and Treasury reserves backing USDC, providing an offset to revenue-sharing concessions outlined in the Hyperliquid agreement.

What This Means

For investors, the latest debate shifts attention away from USDC’s circulating supply and toward how reserve income is divided among issuers, exchanges, and distribution partners. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that while adoption can continue rising, the financial value retained by Circle and Coinbase may face increasing pressure as more platforms negotiate similar commercial terms.

The ongoing revenue-sharing dynamics highlight a fundamental tension in stablecoin economics: expanding distribution often requires sacrificing margins. As Hyperliquid and other platforms seek favorable terms, both Circle and Coinbase will need to balance growth ambitions with profitability expectations going forward.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

Senator Thom Tillis Adds Circuit-Breaker to Stablecoin Bill Amid Banking Concerns

July 2025 — Senator Thom Tillis has introduced new language for the CLARITY Act that would allow federal banking regulators to step in if stablecoin rewards trigger widespread deposit flight from U.S. banks, according to a report from Punchbowl.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The North Carolina Republican’s proposed “circuit-breaker” provision targets one of the most contentious elements of the Senate’s crypto market structure bill. Under the framework, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) would receive authority to intervene only after identifying evidence of systemwide deposit flight rather than imposing an outright ban on stablecoin rewards.

The proposal follows earlier negotiations led by Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks that produced a compromise allowing crypto firms to offer activity-based rewards rather than unrestricted yield on stablecoins. Despite that compromise, banking organizations remain unconvinced that the latest draft adequately protects traditional deposits.

According to a report from crypto.news, several banking associations have argued that the bill’s current wording leaves room for stablecoin issuers to offer incentives that could encourage customers to move money away from bank accounts. Community banks have been particularly vocal in warning that widespread migration of deposits into yield-bearing digital assets could reduce funding available for lending and other banking activities.

Market Context & Reaction

The banking debate is unfolding alongside another dispute that continues to complicate Senate negotiations. Several Democratic lawmakers are pressing for ethics provisions tied to President Donald Trump’s crypto business interests before agreeing to move the legislation forward.

Earlier this week, Senator Elizabeth Warren urged colleagues to include ethics safeguards in the bill, a development that coincided with a decline in prediction market odds for the legislation’s passage.

Senator Cynthia Lummis provided fresh guidance on the bill’s timeline during an interview on FOX Business. Lummis said the Senate expects to introduce the CLARITY Act’s legislative text within the next few days. She stated that the legislation is intended to strengthen consumer protections, help law enforcement combat illicit finance, and keep digital asset markets operating within the United States.

Background & Historical Context

Tillis’ circuit-breaker proposal returns attention to one of the most contested sections of the CLARITY Act as lawmakers work toward releasing the Senate text before the chamber’s August recess. Lummis reiterated that Senate leaders are working toward bringing the measure to the floor before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.

Her comments follow earlier reports indicating that Senate leadership is targeting a floor vote before the end of July if negotiations can be completed. Lummis noted, however, that the scheduling decision ultimately rests with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who controls when legislation is brought before the full chamber.

Banking groups have continued pressing for stricter stablecoin rules despite the earlier compromise. The language governing permissible rewards remains too vague and creates uncertainty over how regulators would interpret future stablecoin products, according to those banking groups.

What This Means

The CLARITY Act’s final Senate text must still bridge disagreements over stablecoin regulation, banking safeguards and ethics provisions before it can secure the bipartisan backing needed to advance.

In the short term, market participants should watch for the release of the full legislative text within the coming days, as promised by Lummis. The circuit-breaker mechanism appears designed to address banking concerns without completely prohibiting stablecoin rewards, potentially offering a middle ground for negotiation.

Long-term implications depend on whether lawmakers can resolve the ethics dispute involving Trump’s crypto business interests, which has emerged as a separate obstacle to passage. Supporters continue pushing for action before the August recess, but the path forward remains uncertain as multiple competing priorities must be reconciled.

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Former LA Deputy Sentenced for Lying in Adam Iza Crypto Extortion Case

March 2025 — A former Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department deputy has been sentenced to 18 months in federal prison after admitting he lied to federal investigators about threats made by cryptocurrency businessman Adam Iza during a 2021 extortion incident. The case highlights the intersection of cryptocurrency, private security, and criminal justice.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

Scott Allen Simpkins, a former deputy with the LASD Special Enforcement Bureau, pleaded guilty on March 17 to one count of obstruction of justice. U.S. District Judge Percy Anderson also imposed a $10,000 fine on Simpkins, who resigned from the department after entering his felony plea.

According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Central District of California, Simpkins falsely denied witnessing Iza threaten a victim with live ammunition during an incident at Iza’s Bel Air home in 2021. Court records indicate Simpkins was working private security at the residence alongside fellow former LASD deputy Christopher Michael Cadman. Both men were employed by Saavedra & Associates, a private security company owned by then-LASD Deputy Eric Chase Saavedra.

Prosecutors said Iza placed four or five live 9mm rounds on his desk, spun one of the bullets while threatening the victim, and demanded a $25,000 transfer before Simpkins and Cadman escorted the victim off the property. The two deputies received $1,400 each for their work that day.

Market Context & Reaction

The U.S. Attorney’s Office said that after helping Saavedra & Associates secure a longer-term security contract with Iza, the company paid Simpkins and Cadman approximately 10% of its profits from the contract’s first month. Market reaction details regarding the cryptocurrency sector were not immediately available from the court documents.

Iza remains in federal custody since September 2024 after pleading guilty in California in January 2025 to conspiracy against rights, wire fraud, and tax evasion. He has not yet been sentenced in that case. In a separate prosecution, the U.S. Department of Justice announced in June that Iza also pleaded guilty in federal court in Connecticut to conspiracy to interfere with commerce by robbery, which carries a maximum prison sentence of 20 years.

Background & Historical Context

According to the Justice Department, the Connecticut case involved a 2024 kidnapping plot targeting the parents of Veer Chetal, a man accused of participating in the theft of approximately 4,100 bitcoin. Prosecutors said Iza and his brother, Saif Faiq, organized the scheme in an attempt to extort cryptocurrency.

Faiq pleaded guilty on June 9, admitting he recruited six men from Florida, arranged their travel to Connecticut, and coordinated surveillance before the attack in Danbury. The group allegedly forced Sushil and Radhika Chetal from their vehicle after staging a collision, assaulted them, and briefly held them captive. The six alleged attackers later pleaded guilty to kidnapping and carjacking offenses.

Federal records show Veer Chetal separately pleaded guilty in November 2025 to charges connected to the theft of approximately 4,100 bitcoin and is awaiting sentencing.

What This Means

The sentencing of Simpkins sends a clear signal about the consequences of obstructing federal investigations, particularly those involving cryptocurrency-related crimes. The case demonstrates how law enforcement officers who cross legal boundaries face significant penalties, including prison time and fines.

For the cryptocurrency community, this case underscores the importance of transparency and lawful conduct in digital asset transactions. Iza’s pending sentencing in both California and Connecticut will likely result in substantial prison time, given the severity of charges including wire fraud, tax evasion, and conspiracy to commit robbery.

The broader implications suggest continued federal scrutiny of cryptocurrency-related extortion and kidnapping schemes, with prosecutors aggressively pursuing both perpetrators and those who attempt to cover up such crimes.

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Bitcoin and Ether ETFs End 8-Week Outflow Streak With $282 Million in Inflows

Jul 13, 2026 — Bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally snapped their eight-week outflow streaks, pulling in a combined $282 million as institutional demand showed signs of recovery. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows, while spot ether ETFs added $84.42 million, according to data from Sosovalue.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The recovery was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted $291.9 million in inflows for the week ending July 10. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust also saw strong demand with $95.1 million. Smaller inflows came through Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ($13.2 million), VanEck’s HODL ($9 million), and Bitwise’s BITB ($5.1 million).

However, the week wasn’t entirely positive. Grayscale’s GBTC lost $108.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw $93.4 million in outflows. Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB shed $15.3 million. The daily flow pattern showed a choppy recovery: bitcoin ETFs added $265.69 million on Monday and $21.44 million on Tuesday, then slipped into outflows of $84.86 million on Wednesday and $95.30 million on Thursday before closing with $90.44 million in inflows on Friday.

On the ether side, ETFs followed a steadier path. The category added $20.66 million on Monday, $26.93 million on Tuesday, and $70.48 million on Wednesday. Thursday brought a $52.08 million outflow, but Friday’s $18.43 million inflow secured a positive weekly close.

Market Context & Reaction

Sosovalue’s weekly update noted the pattern showed improved bitcoin ETF demand, though the recovery remains uneven. Weekly inflows represented about 0.26% of bitcoin ETF assets, based on $77.42 billion in weekend assets under management. That was enough to end the long outflow streak but still short of a strong allocation cycle.

Bitcoin’s rebound to around $63,000 suggested demand near the $60,000 area remains resilient, according to Sosovalue. Friday’s inflows showed institutions were still willing to re-enter during pullbacks.

Ether’s structure looked stronger relative to bitcoin. Based on weekend AUM of about $9.59 billion, ether ETF inflows represented roughly 0.88% of total assets — more than three times bitcoin’s relative flow intensity. ETH rose to around $1,780, while total net assets recovered from recent lows.

Sosovalue said Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and jobs reports will determine if ETF inflows can be sustained.

Background & Historical Context

The $282 million combined inflow marked a significant turn after eight consecutive weeks of redemptions for both bitcoin and ether ETFs. The prolonged outflow period had raised concerns about institutional appetite for crypto exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Altcoin ETFs showed mixed results during the same period. Spot HYPE ETFs drew $10.36 million in net inflows despite ending Friday with a $5.73 million outflow. Spot Solana ETFs posted a modest $930,400 in net inflows. XRP ETFs were weaker, recording $7.18 million in net outflows driven mainly by Wednesday’s $7.29 million exit.

The recovery has not fully repaired the damage from two months of selling, but the pressure has eased significantly.

What This Means

Heading into the new week, the recovery’s durability will depend on whether inflation, employment data, and Federal Reserve expectations continue moving in a more supportive direction for risk assets like crypto.

For traders, the return to positive ETF flows signals that institutional investors may be finding value at current price levels, particularly near bitcoin’s $60,000 support zone. Ether’s stronger relative flow intensity suggests growing conviction in the asset among ETF investors.

Market participants should watch for sustained daily inflows in the coming week as confirmation that the outflow trend has truly reversed. A repeat of negative days could signal the recovery is fragile.

Circle Hosts Seoul Event to Deepen Ties With Korean Financial Firms

July 23, 2025 — Circle is scaling its South Korea outreach by hosting an invitation-only industry event in Seoul this month, as the stablecoin issuer pursues new partnerships with banks, crypto exchanges, and payments firms. The event, called Current Seoul, will take place July 23 at Josun Palace under the theme “Korea at a Crypto Inflection,” bringing together senior executives from major financial institutions.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

Circle’s Seoul gathering follows CEO Jeremy Allaire’s visit to South Korea in April, during which he met with executives from KB Kookmin Bank, Shinhan Bank, Hana Bank, Upbit, Bithumb, and several payments companies to explore potential collaborations. Industry officials cited by The Korea Herald confirmed that the event’s agenda includes discussions on regulation, industry cooperation, and long-term business partnerships.

The speaker lineup features Circle Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy and Operations Dante Disparte, Asia-Pacific Strategy and Policy Vice President David Allan Katz, Business Development Vice President Ben Morris, and Asia-Pacific Head Yam Ki Chan. On the Korean financial industry side, Kakao Pay CEO Shin Won-keun and Bae, Kim & Lee partner Park Jong-baek are scheduled to speak, according to the event registration page.

During his April visit, Allaire described South Korea as a “highly attractive” market due to its advanced technology sector, active digital asset participation, and established legal framework. He also said Circle was interested in working with Korean companies through the Circle Payments Network for cross-border payments.

Market Context & Reaction

The Seoul event comes days after Circle strengthened its regulated financial infrastructure in the United States. As previously reported by crypto.news, the company received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on July 10 to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised national trust bank. Circle said the trust bank will initially provide digital asset custody services for the company and its affiliates before potentially expanding to eligible institutional clients. It could also support future management of USDC reserves, although the company has not announced a timeline for that transition.

Circle has expanded USDC’s banking partnerships in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Standard Chartered launched an integrated service with Circle allowing eligible institutional clients to mint and redeem USDC through the bank’s platform without opening direct Circle accounts. The service debuted through Standard Chartered’s Dubai International Financial Centre operations, combining fiat banking, custody, and blockchain infrastructure for institutional users. BNY has also deepened its relationship with Circle by adding USDC as the first stablecoin supported on its digital asset custody platform.

Background & Historical Context

The Korea expansion comes as competition among dollar-backed stablecoin issuers continues to increase. Circle shares fell 17% on June 30 following the launch of Open USD (OUSD), a competing stablecoin model that allows participating companies to share income generated from reserve assets. The revenue-sharing structure differs from USDC’s model, where Circle retains control over reserve income and partnership terms.

Open USD’s rollout has faced questions over its announced consortium. As previously reported by crypto.news, several South Korean companies, including Samsung Electronics, Dunamu, Shinhan Financial Group, and K Bank, said they had not formally agreed to join the project despite being listed as participants. According to Chosun Biz, the companies said they had only discussed the proposal or expressed interest in reviewing it, while Open Standard has said OUSD will distribute reserve income among consortium members instead of retaining those earnings itself.

What This Means

Circle’s deepening engagement with South Korean financial institutions signals the company’s strategic push into one of Asia’s most active digital asset markets. The company’s focus on regulated banking infrastructure and institutional partnerships positions USDC to capture a larger share of the stablecoin market, particularly as regulatory frameworks develop.

For South Korean banks and exchanges, partnerships with Circle could offer new revenue streams through stablecoin-based services, including cross-border payments and digital asset custody. The immediate impact will likely center on regulatory clarity and business development outcomes from the Current Seoul event.

Long-term implications include potential expansion of Circle Payments Network in Asia, increased institutional adoption of USDC in South Korea, and intensified competition with new stablecoin models like Open USD. Market participants should monitor announcements from Circle’s Seoul event for concrete partnership details and product launches.

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New Clarity Act Draft Set to Drop This Week, Sources Say

July 12, 2026 — Lawmakers plan to unveil an updated version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act this week, according to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations. The new draft combines bills previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, but key disagreements remain unresolved as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The updated Clarity Act text will merge the different versions from both Senate committees and include approximately 70 additional pages, sources told CoinDesk. However, the draft will not contain an ethics provision or agreements on several contentious issues still dividing lawmakers.

“The rest of this newsletter is going to be conjecture and speculation,” the CoinDesk report noted, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the bill’s path forward.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Punchbowl News last month he was willing to bring the bill to the Senate floor for a vote in July. Rumors suggest the vote could occur during the weeks of July 20 or July 27, but no official schedule has been confirmed.

Sources indicated that without an ethics provision, sufficient Democratic support in the Senate remains unlikely. If the upcoming text doesn’t include even a placeholder for the ethics portion, it could prove counterproductive to securing bipartisan backing.

Market Context & Reaction

As of July 12, 2026, the crypto industry faces a narrowing window for the Clarity Act to navigate Congress and reach the president’s desk. The 2026 midterm election is scheduled for November 3, leaving less than four months before lawmakers break for summer recess and enter campaign season.

President Donald Trump and the $1.4 billion he reportedly made from crypto will be a key factor in the floor vote. Sources told CoinDesk that the White House has been less engaged recently compared to earlier this summer, though one individual suggested it may be a matter of waiting for other outstanding issues to resolve first.

Organizations like Stand With Crypto are expected to score the vote, and the industry will highlight the hundreds of millions of dollars crypto political action committees have on hand. Ethos provision remains a critical sticking point for Democrats.

Background & Historical Context

The Clarity Act has been a focus of crypto policy discussions throughout 2026, with industry advocates pushing for regulatory clarity around digital asset market structure. The bill’s path through Congress has faced repeated delays and negotiations between Senate committees.

On a positive note for the bill’s proponents, if President Trump did not veto the housing bill before Saturday, a provision banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for at least four years will have taken effect. Industry players had feared House lawmakers might push to include a CBDC ban in the Clarity Act, which could have strained negotiations further. That issue appears resolved through at least 2030.

What This Means

The Clarity Act’s timeline is critically compressed. If the bill reaches the Senate floor, it will need at least 60 votes, requiring seven Democrats to support it — more if any Republicans vote against it or are absent.

The upcoming hearings this week on crypto and financial regulation will provide additional signals about the bill’s prospects. The House Financial Services Committee’s digital assets subcommittee will hold a hearing in New York on Friday specifically addressing the Clarity Act.

Investors and industry participants should monitor whether the new draft includes any ethics framework, as this will likely determine the bill’s bipartisan viability. Without Democratic support, the Clarity Act faces an uphill battle before the November election.

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Adam Back and Michael Saylor Oppose BIP 110 as Bitcoin Fork Risk Grows

July 12, 2026 — Blockstream co-founder Adam Back and Strategy founder Michael Saylor have publicly opposed BIP 110, a proposed temporary soft fork for Bitcoin that critics say could split the network. Back warned the proposal attempts to police transactions users choose to send, contradicting Bitcoin’s decentralized and permissionless design. Saylor called the plan “extremely dangerous,” cautioning it could turn a spam dispute into a dangerous consensus change.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The opposition to BIP 110, formally called the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, centers on concerns it would restrict certain transaction types for approximately one year. The proposal would apply extra consensus rules limiting large data fields, some Taproot features, and several methods used to embed images or other files inside Bitcoin transactions.

“The plan attempts to police other people’s transactions,” Back said in comments summarized by Wu Blockchain on July 12. He warned that supporters could create a separate chain if they enforce rules without broad agreement from the community.

Saylor reinforced these concerns in his public statement. “BIP 110 turns a spam dispute into a consensus change that would reject some transactions that Bitcoin currently accepts,” he said. Saylor argued developers should focus on larger threats rather than pursuing the temporary soft fork.

Market Context & Reaction

Miner signaling for BIP 110 remains far below the proposal’s required activation threshold. Reporting published July 12 indicated miner signaling stood at zero in the active period and had never exceeded approximately 1% in earlier periods. No major mining pool has publicly supported the proposal.

BIP 110 uses a modified activation process requiring miners to signal support in 1,109 of 2,016 blocks, equal to 55%. The specification sets mandatory signaling before block 963,648 and activation at block 965,664, expected around September 1, 2026. The temporary rules would then remain active for roughly one year.

Without broad adoption, nodes enforcing BIP 110 could follow a minority chain while other nodes continue accepting existing transaction rules. Exchanges, wallets, miners, and node operators now face an August planning window to decide which software and rules they will support.

Background & Historical Context

Bitcoin developer Luke Dashjr continues to back BIP 110 despite the opposition. A July 6 crypto.news report said Dashjr rejected calls to withdraw the proposal and stated, “It’s too late to cancel BIP110.” He argues Ordinals, Runes, and similar uses place non-financial data on Bitcoin and raise long-term costs for storing and serving the blockchain.

The official BIP 110 specification keeps OP_RETURN outputs within an 83-byte limit and restricts several payloads to 256 bytes. Supporters say these limits would reduce data storage demands on node operators while keeping the network focused on money. The proposal exempts UTXOs created before activation, so existing outputs remain spendable under old rules.

Earlier reports noted Back had responded to supporters who claimed discussion channels had blocked the proposal. Back rejected that claim, saying many participants had already reviewed the plan. Low node support and no clear backing from major mining pools characterized that stage.

What This Means

The outcome of BIP 110 will depend on software adoption, miner signaling, and user decisions across the Bitcoin network. If the proposal fails to gain the required 55% miner support before September, it will not activate, and the current rules remain unchanged.

Short-term, exchanges and wallet providers must prepare for the August planning window to determine which software they will support. Long-term, the debate highlights growing tensions between those who want to limit non-financial Bitcoin usage and those who insist fee-paying users should decide how block space is used.

Without broad consensus, the risk of a chain split remains real, though the near-zero miner signaling suggests the proposal faces an uphill battle. The community continues to weigh whether temporary data restrictions solve a genuine problem or undermine Bitcoin’s permissionless nature.

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Grayscale Names 5 Crypto Networks for Tokenized Equity Growth

July 11, 2026 — Crypto asset manager Grayscale has identified five blockchain networks positioned to benefit from the growing tokenized equities market. In research published July 9, the firm highlighted Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Avalanche, and Canton Network as key infrastructure for different ownership models in digital securities.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

Grayscale’s research outlines three phases of equity tokenization, each potentially favoring different blockchain networks. The first phase, third-party wrappers, currently accounts for over 70% of tokenized stocks by market capitalization, according to the report. Under this model, traditional shares are placed into special-purpose vehicles, with investors receiving tokens representing claims on those vehicles rather than direct ownership.

“Each phase of tokenization could benefit different blockchain infrastructure,” said Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale. Wrapped assets currently operate on Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain, where they can be traded and integrated into decentralized finance applications.

The second phase involves the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s planned tokenization pilot, which will use Canton Network as its first blockchain. “We see the tokenization of equity markets progressing in three phases, with each phase driving value to different types of blockchain infrastructure,” Pandl added.

The third phase, issuer-sponsored tokenization, describes companies issuing securities natively onchain. Securitize became the first public company to tokenize its own common stock during its New York Stock Exchange listing.

Market Context & Reaction

“The blockchain networks best positioned to capitalize on the growth in tokenization include, in our view, Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Avalanche, and Canton Network,” Pandl stated in the report.

Grayscale expects wrappers, DTCC’s entitlement model, and issuer-sponsored issuance to coexist for years. The long-term distribution of activity among these five networks remains uncertain, with regulatory developments, issuer adoption, and successful implementation determining which networks capture the greatest role in digital securities markets.

The research notes that DTCC’s pilot may help define Canton Network’s role alongside public blockchains supporting tokenized assets. This regulated approach differs from wrapper-based systems that create claims through separate vehicles.

Background & Historical Context

Grayscale’s research identifies DTCC’s planned pilot as the second phase of tokenized equity development. DTCC plans to bring existing eligible securities onchain through regulated post-trade infrastructure rather than issuing replacement versions, an approach Grayscale describes as the entitlement model.

The crypto asset manager believes issuer-sponsored tokenization has the greatest long-term potential and could favor Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche. However, wider adoption still requires additional regulatory clarity.

What This Means

Grayscale expects tokenized equity markets to evolve through three coexisting models, each supporting different blockchain infrastructure.

– Short-term: Wrapper-based tokens on Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain will continue dominating the market

– Medium-term: DTCC’s pilot could establish Canton Network’s role in regulated tokenization

– Long-term: Issuer-sponsored native onchain securities may favor Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche if regulatory clarity improves

AI Models Predict Bitcoin Consolidation Below $64,000 for August 1

July 11, 2026 — Nine artificial intelligence models have issued Bitcoin price predictions for August 1, with eight of nine forecasts clustering between $63,420 and $67,940 as BTC trades below $64,000. The AI consensus suggests consolidation rather than a dramatic breakout, according to a Bitcoin.com News analysis published today.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The experiment enlisted nine chatbots — Deepseek, Grok, Meta AI, Gwen, ChatGPT 5.6 Sol, Claude Fable, Pi AI, Kimi, and Gemini — each using distinct mathematical frameworks to project Bitcoin’s month-end price. The prompt required each model to “use a clearly defined mathematical deduction model” and provide a single specific price rather than a range.

Deepseek’s Deepthink model applied a “smoothed momentum-volatility decay model,” calculating BTC at $64,630 by compounding a 0.09% daily drift minus half the daily variance over 22 calendar days. Grok 4.6 Expert mode used a “seasonality-momentum hybrid model” projecting $65,880, factoring in July’s historical 5.5% average return minus seasonal drag and volatility adjustments.

Gwen 3.7 Plus employed “Geometric Brownian Motion” parameterized with 0.2% daily momentum drift and 3% daily volatility, yielding $66,013. Kimi 2.6’s “Weighted Momentum-Mean Reversion Model” landed at $65,420, weighting 60% mean-reversion to the 50-day SMA and 40% momentum continuation. Gemini Pro applied a “time-weighted historical seasonality model” with a 0.8 volatility coefficient, projecting $66,738.

Market Context & Reaction

Bitcoin currently sits down more than 40% over the past 12 months and nearly 50% below its all-time high above $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index registered 26 (Fear) as of the analysis date, up from Extreme Fear levels in prior weeks.

The one outlier — Pi AI — predicted $89,359, assuming a 1.5% daily compounded growth rate described as “conservative.” Unlike its peers, Pi AI named no model, showed no formula, and offered no downside scenario. “That gap in rigor, more than the number itself, is what separates it from the rest of the field,” the report noted.

Traders are now awaiting the July 29 Federal Reserve decision, identified as the key catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. The tight forecast band — less than $4,500 spread across eight models — suggests AI consensus sees the market “catching its breath rather than gearing up for a dramatic August run,” according to the analysis.

Background & Historical Context

July has treated BTC more favorably than June, though the asset remains well below its all-time high. The experiment’s convergence among models using different mathematical frameworks — from EMA-based drift calculations to probability-weighted scenario trees — carries more weight than any single price target.

Each model incorporated recent price action, volatility, momentum, historical patterns and market conditions. Bitcoin’s recent drawdown to cycle lows near $58,000 and subsequent early-July rebound above $64,000 informed several projections. The 200-week moving average holding at $62,200-$62,500 was cited as structural support.

What This Means

The eight-model consensus indicates AI-powered analysis expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound through month’s end, with most forecasts pointing to modest single-digit monthly moves. The July 29 Fed decision represents the most significant near-term catalyst that could break the consolidation pattern.

For traders, the divergence between the main cluster and Pi AI’s outlier highlights the importance of examining models’ underlying assumptions rather than focusing on price targets alone. Models showing their mathematical reasoning provide more reliable signals than those offering flat growth assumptions without methodology.