How to Value DePIN Projects: A Trader’s Guide to the Physical Internet

Imagine a world where your smartphone helps map a city, your smartwatch powers a health research network, and your home Wi-Fi router earns you passive income. That’s the promise of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN). But as a trader, how do you separate the next Helium from the next vaporware? Valuation in this space is different from traditional crypto projects. In this guide, we’ll break down a simple, repeatable framework to evaluate DePIN tokens so you can spot real-world momentum before the crowd.

How it Works

DePIN projects use blockchain tokens to incentivize people to build and maintain physical infrastructure—like wireless hotspots, storage drives, or sensor networks. The core idea is simple: instead of a single company owning the hardware, thousands of individuals deploy it and earn tokens for providing real-world services.

For traders, this creates a unique valuation dynamic. Unlike a DeFi protocol where value comes from fees, DePIN value comes from network utility and hardware adoption. If no one uses the network, the token is just a speculative toy. If the network is actually serving paying customers (like IoT data or file storage), the token has a fundamental floor.

The Setup

To value a DePIN project, focus on three key metrics:

1. Active Hardware Count – How many devices (hotspots, miners, nodes) are online? More hardware means more coverage and reliability. Check sites like Hivemapper Explorer or Helium Explorer. A growing hardware count is bullish.

2. Revenue Per Device – Is the network generating real revenue from users (not just token emissions)? Look for projects that publish monthly revenue reports. For example, Hivemapper’s dashcam network generates revenue from map data subscriptions. Divide total revenue by active devices to get a rough estimate of token utility.

3. Token Supply & Emissions – Most DePIN projects have high inflation because they reward hardware operators. Check the emission schedule. If inflation is high but hardware growth is flat, the token price will likely fall. Use tools like Token Unlocks to see future supply.

The Sweet Spot: You want to see hardware count growing faster than token inflation, and revenue per device trending up. That indicates real-world demand is outpacing supply.

Risk Management

DePIN projects are still early and carry unique risks:

• Hardware Obsolescence: If a project’s hardware becomes outdated (e.g., a 5G hotspot that can’t handle new frequencies), the network loses value. Always check if hardware can be upgraded.
• Regulatory Risk: Physical infrastructure like wireless towers or dashcams can attract government scrutiny. Follow local laws.
• Token Dilution: High inflation can crush price even if the network is growing. Set a stop-loss if the token drops below key support levels (e.g., 20-day EMA).
• Liquidity: Many DePIN tokens trade on smaller exchanges. Stick to projects with at least $5M daily volume to avoid slippage.

Rule of Thumb: Never allocate more than 5% of your portfolio to a single DePIN project. Diversify across different sectors (wireless, storage, mapping).

Conclusion

DePIN is one of the most exciting sectors in crypto because it bridges digital tokens with real-world infrastructure. By focusing on active hardware, revenue per device, and token emissions, you can cut through the hype and find projects with genuine utility. Start with small positions, monitor the metrics weekly, and let the network’s growth guide your trades. The physical internet is being built right now—position yourself early, but always manage risk.

Remember: In DePIN, the hardware is the story. Follow the devices, and the tokens will follow.