Meta Developing Prediction Market App ‘Arena’ as Sector Gains Traction

June 23, 2026 — Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is developing a new experimental app called “Arena” that functions as a prediction market platform, according to a New York Times report. The app would allow users to forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs using a video game-like points system rather than cash wagers.

Immediate Details & Direct Quotes

The product is currently experimental but described as a top priority inside Meta, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with the New York Times. Unlike established prediction market platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, Arena would rely on a points-based system instead of real money—though Meta has not ruled out eventually incorporating real-money betting.

Meta had previously launched a similar product called “Forecast” in 2020, which encouraged users to make predictions about current events and emerging trends during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The company ultimately shut down Forecast in 2022.

The sources characterized Arena as both experimental and a high-priority initiative within the company. Specific launch dates and details about the points system mechanics were not disclosed.

Market Context & Reaction

Meta’s renewed interest in prediction markets comes amid surging popularity for the sector. Polymarket experienced breakout success during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when traders flocked to the crypto-based platform to place bets on electoral outcomes, generating billions of dollars in trading volume and pushing prediction markets into mainstream political discourse.

The broader industry trend supports Meta’s move. Nearly every major trading platform has made efforts to offer prediction market-style products or event contracts. Crypto-native companies including Coinbase and Kraken have explored opportunities in the space, while retail brokerage Robinhood has introduced event-based contracts tied to political and economic outcomes.

As of June 2026, the prediction market sector continues to attract significant attention from both users and regulators.

Background & Historical Context

The rapid growth of prediction markets has brought increasing legal and regulatory scrutiny. Critics argue that contracts tied to elections, geopolitics or other sensitive events can blur the line between financial instruments and gambling.

Regulators have raised concerns about market manipulation, insider information, consumer protection, and the potential for participants to profit from events they may be able to influence. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has repeatedly grappled with whether certain event contracts serve a legitimate hedging purpose or constitute prohibited gaming activities.

Meta’s Arena project represents the company’s second attempt at entering the prediction market space, following the earlier Forecast initiative that operated from 2020 to 2022.

What This Means

Meta’s entry into prediction markets signals growing mainstream acceptance of event-based forecasting platforms. The company’s massive user base could accelerate adoption if Arena launches widely.

The points-based approach may help Meta navigate regulatory challenges that have plagued real-money prediction markets, though the potential for eventual cash betting leaves regulatory questions open.

Traders and investors should monitor Meta’s development timeline and any future announcements about real-money integration. The project remains experimental with no confirmed launch date.

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